#26 01/10/2012 16h25
- BearBullCarpeDiem
- Membre (2012)
- Réputation : 86
Bonjour Sergio,
Merci de voir mon Edit initial dans le message : j’ai amendé à cause des rachats d’actions : bien sur vous avez raison… je n’ai aucun pb avec les rachats d’action surtout à ces taux de retour… (j’avais juste lu un peu trop vite les cash flows au départ raison de mon Edit…).
Les ratios financiers sont très impressionnants et les signaux aux verts d’un point de vue analyse financière.
Mais pour alimenter la réflexion, une mise en lumière de risques potentiels :
comme évoqué dans la file, certains danger ne sont pas neutres :
- maturité des brevets et le risque de diminution du moat à terme + problématique de protection de la techno Dolby en Chine et Inde
- part croissante de Microsoft (windows 7 OS) dans les revenus totaux (risque de remise en cause à chaque release d’un nouveau windows OS ? c’est bon pour le 8 mais après?)
- developpement en retard, en septembre 2011, sur certaines solution : ex ci-dessous 4K digital cinema solutions.
Extrait du rapport annuel 2011 :
As of September 30, 2011, we had nearly 2,300 individual issued patents and over 2,300 pending patent applications in nearly 90 jurisdictions throughout the world. Our issued patents are scheduled to expire at various times through May 2030. Of these, two patents are scheduled to expire in the remainder of calendar year 2011, 52 patents are scheduled to expire in calendar year 2012, 30 patents are scheduled to expire in calendar year 2013, and 91 patents are scheduled to expire in calendar year 2014.
We derive our licensing revenue principally from our Dolby Digital technologies. Patents relating to our
Dolby Digital technologies have begun to expire and the remaining patents relating to this technology generally expire between now and 2017. Additional patents relating to our Dolby Digital Plus technologies, an extension of Dolby Digital, expire between 2018 and 2026, and the remaining patents relating to Dolby Digital Live technologies, an extension of Dolby Digital, are scheduled to expire between now and 2021.
we have relatively few or no issued patents in certain countries. For example, in China, Taiwan,
and India, we have only limited patent protection, especially with respect to our Dolby Digital technologies. In India, we have no issued patents for Dolby Digital technologies. Consequently, in the future we may recognize less revenue from Dolby Digital from those regions. Thus, maintaining or growing our licensing revenue in developing countries such as China, Taiwan, and India will depend in part on our ability to obtain patent rights in these counties, which is uncertain. Further, because of the limitations of the legal systems in many countries, the effectiveness of patents obtained or that may in the future be obtained, if any, is uncertain.
Microsoft Corporation is one of our licensees and accounted for approximately 10%, 12%, and 13% of our total revenue in fiscal 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively. Most of our Microsoft revenue is generated from the Windows 7 operating system, which contains our technologies. We face the risk that Microsoft may not include our technologies in the commercial version of the Windows 8 operating system or future Microsoft operating systems.
Several of our competitors have introduced digital cinema products that support the presentation of movies with higher resolution “4K” digital cinema projectors. Certain major exhibitors have begun installing 4K digital cinema equipment in their theaters. In the future, other exhibitors may feel they need to outfit some or all of their theaters with 4K digital cinema equipment to compete in markets where competitors are promoting 4K products.We currently do not offer a 4K digital cinema solution, although we are developing one.
- Des dépenses de R&D de plus en plus importantes, c’est bien pour l’avenir ok mais comme vous aimez bien les citations Thomz :
Warren Buffett’s advice:
When companies have to spend heavily on R&D, they have an inherent flaw
and this will sooner or later affect its long term economics, which means they
are not a sure thing and therefore Buffett is not interested in such
investments.
- Enfin un dernier point : les investisseurs historiques (famille etc…) gardent bien le controle : le flottant n’est que de 45,51%.
Mais pour rester très optimiste sur le futur :
After all, even in a recession, most consumers won’t stop going to movies, replacing computers, or listening to music.
Dolby pourrait donc bien continuer à avoir un bel avenir devant lui, mais peut être pas à des taux de croissance aussi fort que par le passé.
Voilà ces quelques points pour alimenter la réflexion. Je ne suis pas encore décidé mais la phrase de Mister W.Buffett raisonne à mon oreille, en tout cas pour une vision et une détention à long terme !
Parrainage : Boursorama
Hors ligne